Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bragantino host Chapecoense-SC on Wed 28 Oct at 22:30. Bragantino are 10th in the table and Chapecoense-SC are 20th.
The model gives Bragantino a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chapecoense-SC 15%. It expects 2.1 goals from Bragantino and 0.9 from Chapecoense-SC, with a 57% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Bragantino won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Chapecoense-SC won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Bragantino's last 10 matches and 7 of Chapecoense-SC's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Bragantino have 7 wins from 15, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Chapecoense-SC have 1 win from 16, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 1 league meeting, Bragantino won 1, Chapecoense-SC won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 3 May, finished Chapecoense-SC 1-2 Bragantino.
Notable run: Bragantino, under 3.5 goals in the last 17 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 85%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bragantino win | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Chapecoense-SC win | 15% | 6.59 |
| Home or draw | 85% | 1.18 | |
| No draw | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Away or draw | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 19% | 5.20 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.11 |
| Bragantino to score | 87% | 1.14 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Chapecoense-SC to score | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Bragantino clean sheet | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Chapecoense-SC clean sheet | 13% | 7.93 |
| Home leads at half-time | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 16% | 6.35 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.91 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.74 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 4% | |||
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 8% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 64% | 1.26 | 1.57 | -19.6% |
| Chapecoense-SC win | 15% | 9.09 | 6.59 | +37.9% |
| Draw | 21% | 5.63 | 4.75 | +18.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | – | 1.75 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | – | 2.34 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | WDWLD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | WWLLL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LLDWL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | LWLDD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | WDLWD |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | LWDLW |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | DDDLW |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | DLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bragantino | Chapecoense-SC |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino | #13 | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Chapecoense-SC | #20 | 1.10 | 1.77 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting