Predictions
Value bets
Matches where the model's probability times the average bookmaker odds is more than 5% above break-even. An edge here means the model and the market disagree, and the market is usually right.
Read this first: in the live record, 266 flagged bets returned -24.7% at flat stakes. Treat these as a shortlist to research, not tips. Full track record
26 of 173 matches
| Kick-off | Match | Result split | Pick | Prob. | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tomorrow 19:45 | Fiorentina v Atalanta Italy · Serie A · Tomorrow 19:45 · xG 1.2–1.6 | Atalanta win +42.9% | 47% | 3.01 fair 2.11 | |
Fri 30 Oct 23:00 | Corinthians v Mirassol Brazil · Série A · Fri 30 Oct 23:00 · xG 1.3–1.1 | Mirassol win +41.5% | 31% | 4.59 fair 3.24 | |
Today 18:00 | Brommapojkarna v Hacken Sweden · Allsvenskan · Today 18:00 · xG 1.6–1.8 | Brommapojkarna win +40.1% | 35% | 4.03 fair 2.88 | |
Tomorrow 18:00 | Kalmar v GAIS Sweden · Allsvenskan · Tomorrow 18:00 · xG 0.9–1.4 | GAIS win +39.3% | 50% | 2.81 fair 2.02 | |
Today 17:30 | Milan v Bologna Italy · Serie A · Today 17:30 · xG 1.5–1.0 | Bologna win +34.3% | 25% | 5.30 fair 3.95 | |
Today 19:45 | Sutton v Aldershot England · National League · Today 19:45 · xG 1.6–1.4 | Aldershot win +27.5% | 34% | 3.75 fair 2.94 | |
Today 20:00 | Hearts v Rangers Scotland · Premiership · Today 20:00 · xG 1.5–1.4 | Hearts win +27.3% | 41% | 3.11 fair 2.44 | |
Tomorrow 00:30 | Chicago Fire v Orlando City USA · MLS · Tomorrow 00:30 · xG 2.3–1.7 | Orlando City win +25.5% | 28% | 4.45 fair 3.55 | |
Today 19:45 | St Mirren v Hibernian Scotland · Premiership · Today 19:45 · xG 1.1–1.3 | Under 2.5 goals +23.0% | 57% | 2.17 fair 1.76 | |
Today 22:30 | Bragantino v Chapecoense-SC Brazil · Série A · Today 22:30 · xG 2.1–0.9 | Draw +18.6% | 21% | 5.63 fair 4.75 | |
Today 19:00 | Carrarese v Arezzo Italy · Serie B · Today 19:00 · xG 1.8–1.0 | Carrarese win +18.5% | 53% | 2.22 fair 1.87 | |
Today 18:00 | Degerfors v Vasteras SK Sweden · Allsvenskan · Today 18:00 · xG 1.1–1.4 | Vasteras SK win +16.9% | 43% | 2.73 fair 2.33 | |
Tomorrow 17:30 | Hammarby v Sirius Sweden · Allsvenskan · Tomorrow 17:30 · xG 2.1–1.2 | Sirius win +14.0% | 22% | 5.21 fair 4.57 | |
Today 19:00 | Juve Stabia v Verona Italy · Serie B · Today 19:00 · xG 1.5–1.2 | Juve Stabia win +13.8% | 41% | 2.75 fair 2.42 | |
Tomorrow 02:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC USA · MLS · Tomorrow 02:30 · xG 2.2–1.2 | San Diego FC win +13.7% | 20% | 5.63 fair 4.95 | |
Tomorrow 18:00 | Orgryte v Mjallby Sweden · Allsvenskan · Tomorrow 18:00 · xG 1.3–1.8 | Mjallby win +12.7% | 50% | 2.24 fair 1.99 | |
Tomorrow 03:00 | Club America v Club Tijuana Mexico · Liga MX · Tomorrow 03:00 · xG 2.0–1.0 | Club Tijuana win +12.7% | 18% | 6.19 fair 5.49 | |
Today 19:45 | Genoa v Juventus Italy · Serie A · Today 19:45 · xG 0.8–1.5 | Genoa win +12.0% | 22% | 5.18 fair 4.63 | |
Today 19:45 | Aberdeen v Falkirk Scotland · Premiership · Today 19:45 · xG 1.4–1.2 | Falkirk win +11.0% | 33% | 3.38 fair 3.05 | |
Today 19:45 | Monza v Napoli Italy · Serie A · Today 19:45 · xG 1.0–2.1 | Napoli win +10.4% | 63% | 1.74 fair 1.58 | |
Tomorrow 17:30 | Frosinone v Lecce Italy · Serie A · Tomorrow 17:30 · xG 2.1–1.0 | Under 2.5 goals +10.2% | 41% | 2.67 fair 2.42 | |
Tomorrow 17:00 | KuPS v Gnistan Finland · Veikkausliiga · Tomorrow 17:00 · xG 2.0–1.0 | Gnistan win +9.9% | 18% | 6.17 fair 5.61 | |
Today 19:45 | St Johnstone v Motherwell Scotland · Premiership · Today 19:45 · xG 1.2–1.3 | Motherwell win +7.9% | 41% | 2.66 fair 2.46 | |
Tomorrow 02:30 | Seattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo USA · MLS · Tomorrow 02:30 · xG 1.4–1.0 | Draw +7.9% | 28% | 3.81 fair 3.53 | |
Today 17:30 | Venezia v Inter Italy · Serie A · Today 17:30 · xG 0.8–2.6 | Under 2.5 goals +5.8% | 33% | 3.17 fair 3.00 | |
Today 19:45 | Carlisle v Harrogate England · National League · Today 19:45 · xG 1.8–1.5 | Harrogate win +5.1% | 33% | 3.19 fair 3.03 |