Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Fiorentina host Atalanta on Thu 29 Oct at 19:45. Fiorentina are 18th in the table and Atalanta are 11th.
The model gives Fiorentina a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atalanta 47%. It expects 1.2 goals from Fiorentina and 1.6 from Atalanta, with a 52% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Fiorentina won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Atalanta won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 matches and 6 of Atalanta's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Fiorentina have 0 wins from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Atalanta have 0 wins from 3, conceding 2.3 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Fiorentina won 1, Atalanta won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Fri 22 May, finished Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Notable run: Fiorentina, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Fiorentina win | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Atalanta win | 47% | 2.11 |
| Home or draw | 53% | 1.90 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away or draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 63% | 1.59 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.82 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.22 |
| Fiorentina to score | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Atalanta to score | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 31% | 3.20 |
| Home leads at half-time | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.06 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.47 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 53% | 1.88 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 28% | 2.18 | 3.60 | -39.4% |
| Atalanta win | 47% | 3.01 | 2.11 | +42.9% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.62 | 4.05 | -10.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.59 | 1.92 | -17.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.27 | 2.09 | +8.5% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 4.3 / 4.2 | 3.7 / 5.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | #12 | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Atalanta | #7 | 1.59 | 1.10 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting