Pre-match probabilities
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
KuPS host Gnistan on Thu 29 Oct at 17:00. KuPS are 3rd in the table and Gnistan are 5th.
The model gives KuPS a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gnistan 18%. It expects 2.0 goals from KuPS and 1.0 from Gnistan, with a 58% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
KuPS won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Gnistan won 0, drew 2 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of KuPS's last 10 matches and 5 of Gnistan's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 7 respectively.
At home this season KuPS have 7 wins from 14, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Gnistan have 5 wins from 14, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, KuPS won 4, Gnistan won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Tue 8 Sept, finished Gnistan 1-1 KuPS.
Notable run: Gnistan, conceded in the last 6 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| KuPS win | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Gnistan win | 18% | 5.61 |
| Home or draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| No draw | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Away or draw | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 22% | 4.45 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Not both teams score | 46% | 2.19 |
| KuPS to score | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Gnistan to score | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| KuPS clean sheet | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Gnistan clean sheet | 13% | 7.58 |
| Home leads at half-time | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 17% | 5.77 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.66 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.55 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 7% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 3% | 3% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS win | 61% | 1.41 | 1.63 | -13.4% |
| Gnistan win | 18% | 6.17 | 5.61 | +9.9% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.34 | 4.82 | -10.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | 1.72 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | – | 2.38 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 35:20 | +15 | 55 | WDWLW |
| 2 | HJK | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 55:34 | +21 | 52 | DWWWD |
| 3 | KuPS | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 45:28 | +17 | 52 | WLLWD |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 36:37 | -1 | 43 | LWLWW |
| 5 | Gnistan | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 43:41 | +2 | 42 | DDLLL |
| 6 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 35:26 | +9 | 39 | WLDLW |
| 7 | VPS | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 31:34 | -3 | 39 | LLWLL |
| 8 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | +6 | 38 | WWWDW |
| 9 | TPS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 29:33 | -4 | 32 | DLLLL |
| 10 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29:37 | -8 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 11 | Jaro | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 24:50 | -26 | 25 | DWDDW |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22:49 | -27 | 19 | LWLDD |
| 13 | PK-35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | KuPS | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 1.70 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | #2 | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| Gnistan | #7 | 1.52 | 1.48 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting