Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Club America host Club Tijuana on Thu 29 Oct at 03:00. Club America are 1st in the table and Club Tijuana are 8th.
The model gives Club America a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Club Tijuana 18%. It expects 2.0 goals from Club America and 1.0 from Club Tijuana, with a 58% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Club America won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Club Tijuana won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Club America's last 10 matches and 6 of Club Tijuana's last 10; both teams scored in 8 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Club America have 3 wins from 6, scoring 2.0 a game; away from home Club Tijuana have 0 wins from 5, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Club America won 2, Club Tijuana won 0 and 4 games ended level, averaging 2.7 goals. The most recent, on Sat 10 Jan, finished Club Tijuana 0-0 Club America.
Notable run: Club America, scored in the last 13 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Club America win | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Club Tijuana win | 18% | 5.49 |
| Home or draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| No draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away or draw | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 24% | 4.24 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.28 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.28 |
| Club America to score | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Club Tijuana to score | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Club America clean sheet | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Club Tijuana clean sheet | 14% | 7.30 |
| Home leads at half-time | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.49 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 1 | 9% | 11% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 3% | 3% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club America win | 59% | 1.40 | 1.70 | -17.4% |
| Club Tijuana win | 18% | 6.19 | 5.49 | +12.7% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.64 | 4.38 | +5.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | 1.72 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | – | 2.38 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32:23 | +9 | 26 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:12 | +9 | 26 | LDDWW |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25:26 | -1 | 24 | WDWLW |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 23 | DLDDD |
| 6 | Club Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21:18 | +3 | 22 | WDLWD |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:18 | +5 | 20 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:17 | +4 | 20 | LDDDW |
| 9 | Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 20 | WWLLL |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 19 | WLDWW |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 | LDWLD |
| 13 | Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22:19 | +3 | 16 | LDLLW |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | -5 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 15 | WWDLD |
| 16 | Atlante | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | WLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 10 | LDLLD |
| 18 | Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9:33 | -24 | 5 | LDLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Club America | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 2.80 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 1.60 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | #2 | 1.76 | 1.10 |
| Club Tijuana | #9 | 1.47 | 1.37 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.7 goals per meeting