Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Sutton host Aldershot on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Sutton are 16th in the table and Aldershot are 14th.
The model gives Sutton a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aldershot 34%. It expects 1.6 goals from Sutton and 1.4 from Aldershot, with a 57% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Sutton won 0, drew 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Aldershot won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Sutton's last 10 matches and 5 of Aldershot's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Sutton have 3 wins from 7, scoring 1.1 a game; away from home Aldershot have 2 wins from 7, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Sutton won 0, Aldershot won 0 and 4 games ended level, averaging 2.0 goals. The most recent, on Fri 3 Apr, finished Aldershot 2-2 Sutton.
Notable run: Sutton, over 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Sutton win | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Aldershot win | 34% | 2.94 |
| Home or draw | 66% | 1.51 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.23 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.62 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Not both teams score | 41% | 2.46 |
| Sutton to score | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Aldershot to score | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Sutton clean sheet | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Aldershot clean sheet | 21% | 4.79 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both score 1st half | 23% | 4.41 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.15 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 11% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton win | 42% | 1.80 | 2.39 | -24.8% |
| Aldershot win | 34% | 3.75 | 2.94 | +27.5% |
| Draw | 24% | 3.59 | 4.13 | -13.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.68 | 1.76 | -4.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.05 | 2.31 | -11.3% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 38:13 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32:18 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33:21 | +12 | 28 | LDWWD |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 27 | WDWWW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22:20 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 33:17 | +16 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 24:22 | +2 | 23 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Halifax | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24:17 | +7 | 21 | LDWWD |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25:21 | +4 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Kidderminster | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23:22 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | +1 | 18 | WLLLL |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 18 | LDLLW |
| 16 | Sutton | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15:21 | -6 | 18 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 15 | WDLLW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14:20 | -6 | 15 | LLLWW |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21:30 | -9 | 14 | WLWWL |
| 21 | Boston Utd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 10 | LWLLL |
| 23 | Solihull | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14:37 | -23 | 7 | LWLLL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8:31 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Sutton | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 5.1 / 3.9 | 4.5 / 5.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton | #22 | 1.20 | 1.53 |
| Aldershot | #19 | 1.39 | 1.66 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.0 goals per meeting