Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Milan host Bologna on Wed 28 Oct at 17:30. Milan are 4th in the table and Bologna are 13th.
The model gives Milan a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bologna 25%. It expects 1.5 goals from Milan and 1.0 from Bologna, with a 46% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Milan won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Bologna won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Milan's last 10 matches and 4 of Bologna's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Milan have 3 wins from 3, scoring 2.7 a game; away from home Bologna have 2 wins from 4, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Milan won 3, Bologna won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.8 goals. The most recent, on Tue 3 Feb, finished Bologna 0-3 Milan.
Notable run: Milan, unbeaten in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Milan win | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Bologna win | 25% | 3.95 |
| Home or draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 34% | 2.93 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.02 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.98 |
| Milan to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Bologna to score | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Milan clean sheet | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Bologna clean sheet | 22% | 4.52 |
| Home leads at half-time | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Level at half-time | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 5.91 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 3.99 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 15% | 6.54 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 85% | 1.18 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan win | 49% | 1.62 | 2.05 | -20.9% |
| Bologna win | 25% | 5.30 | 3.95 | +34.2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | 3.87 | +1.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 1.81 | 2.17 | -16.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.94 | 1.85 | +4.7% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Milan | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.90 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Corners for / against | 3.4 / 3.6 | 3.8 / 5.3 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | #6 | 1.52 | 1.00 |
| Bologna | #10 | 1.31 | 1.18 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.8 goals per meeting