Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Monza host Napoli on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Monza are 15th in the table and Napoli are 10th.
The model gives Monza a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Napoli 63%. It expects 1.0 goals from Monza and 2.1 from Napoli, with a 59% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Monza won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Napoli won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Monza's last 10 matches and 5 of Napoli's last 10; both teams scored in 8 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Monza have 2 wins from 3, scoring 2.7 a game; away from home Napoli have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Monza won 0, Napoli won 2 and 0 games ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 19 Apr, finished Monza 0-1 Napoli.
Notable run: Monza, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Away or draw, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Monza win | 16% | 6.08 | |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Napoli win | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home or draw | 37% | 2.73 | |
| No draw | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away or draw | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 79% | 1.26 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Not both teams score | 46% | 2.19 |
| Monza to score | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Napoli to score | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Monza clean sheet | 12% | 8.14 | |
| Napoli clean sheet | 38% | 2.63 |
| Home leads at half-time | 16% | 6.11 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.91 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.41 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 75% | 1.34 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 4% | |
| 1 | 5% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 4% | |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 16% | 4.35 | 6.08 | -28.4% |
| Napoli win | 63% | 1.74 | 1.58 | +10.4% |
| Draw | 20% | 3.89 | 4.97 | -21.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.69 | -0.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.11 | 2.44 | -13.6% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 80%8/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 70%7/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.30 | 1.00 |
| Corners for / against | 4.2 / 4.8 | 5.6 / 4.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | #20 | 1.22 | 1.79 |
| Napoli | #4 | 1.53 | 0.94 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting