Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Frosinone host Lecce on Thu 29 Oct at 17:30. Frosinone are 6th in the table and Lecce are 12th.
The model gives Frosinone a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lecce 17%. It expects 2.1 goals from Frosinone and 1.0 from Lecce, with a 59% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Frosinone won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Lecce won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Frosinone's last 8 matches and 6 of Lecce's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Frosinone have 3 wins from 4, scoring 2.3 a game; away from home Lecce have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.0 a game.
Notable run: Frosinone, a first-half goal in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Frosinone win | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Draw | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Lecce win | 17% | 5.95 |
| Home or draw | 83% | 1.20 | |
| No draw | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Away or draw | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 21% | 4.74 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Not both teams score | 46% | 2.19 |
| Frosinone to score | 87% | 1.14 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Lecce to score | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Lecce clean sheet | 13% | 7.97 |
| Home leads at half-time | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.92 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.41 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 47% | 2.11 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 7% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone win | 63% | 1.66 | 1.59 | +4.4% |
| Lecce win | 17% | 4.49 | 5.95 | -24.5% |
| Draw | 20% | 4.13 | 4.92 | -16.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.44 | 1.70 | -15.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.67 | 2.42 | +10.2% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Frosinone | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%8/8 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%7/8 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%5/8 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%3/8 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 38%3/8 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%4/8 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 50%4/8 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 25%2/8 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 25%2/8 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 25%2/8 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 25%2/8 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 100%8/8 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 75%6/8 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.13 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.63 | 1.60 |
| Corners for / against | 5.88 / 7 | 4.5 / 3.6 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | #8 | 1.84 | 1.41 |
| Lecce | #18 | 0.90 | 1.34 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.