Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Carrarese host Arezzo on Wed 28 Oct at 19:00. Carrarese are 16th in the table and Arezzo are 11th.
The model gives Carrarese a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arezzo 21%. It expects 1.8 goals from Carrarese and 1.0 from Arezzo, with a 52% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Carrarese won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Arezzo won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Carrarese's last 10 matches and 6 of Arezzo's last 8; both teams scored in 5 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Carrarese have 1 win from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Arezzo have 3 wins from 4, conceding 1.8 a game.
Notable run: Carrarese, under 3.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Carrarese win | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Arezzo win | 21% | 4.83 |
| Home or draw | 79% | 1.26 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 28% | 3.58 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.81 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Not both teams score | 46% | 2.17 |
| Carrarese to score | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Arezzo to score | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Arezzo clean sheet | 17% | 5.75 |
| Home leads at half-time | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.96 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.81 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70% | 1.43 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 6% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 53% | 2.22 | 1.87 | +18.5% |
| Arezzo win | 21% | 3.10 | 4.83 | -35.8% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.16 | 3.86 | -18.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.97 | 1.92 | +2.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 1.75 | 2.09 | -16.4% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18:8 | +10 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | +6 | 17 | WDWLW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | +7 | 16 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:6 | +8 | 15 | LWDDW |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | +5 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | +3 | 13 | DWDLD |
| 8 | Juve Stabia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 | DDDWW |
| 9 | Avellino | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 11 | DLWDL |
| 10 | Padova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Arezzo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:17 | -9 | 10 | WLDWL |
| 12 | Verona | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15:13 | +2 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Virtus Entella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:9 | +1 | 9 | WDDWL |
| 14 | Vicenza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | -4 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8:12 | -4 | 8 | DDLDL |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:9 | -2 | 7 | LLWWL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:13 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 6 | DDDLL |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 5 | LWLLD |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:20 | -11 | 4 | WLLDL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Carrarese | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 88%7/8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 75%6/8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 75%6/8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 50%4/8 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 13%1/8 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 50%4/8 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 25%2/8 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 50%4/8 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 0%0/10 | 13%1/8 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 2.13 |
| Corners for / against | 5.3 / 5.2 | 4.25 / 4.62 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | #13 | 1.13 | 1.28 |
| Arezzo | #20 | 1.13 | 1.75 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.