Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
St Mirren host Hibernian on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. St Mirren are 6th in the table and Hibernian are 12th.
The model gives St Mirren a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Hibernian 43%. It expects 1.1 goals from St Mirren and 1.3 from Hibernian, with a 43% chance of three or more goals and 48% that both teams score.
St Mirren won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Hibernian won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of St Mirren's last 10 matches and 7 of Hibernian's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 8 respectively.
At home this season St Mirren have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.4 a game; away from home Hibernian have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, St Mirren won 1, Hibernian won 2 and 3 games ended level, averaging 2.3 goals. The most recent, on Sat 14 Feb, finished Hibernian 2-0 St Mirren.
Notable run: Hibernian, conceded in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 78%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| St Mirren win | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Hibernian win | 43% | 2.33 |
| Home or draw | 57% | 1.75 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 59% | 1.70 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10% | 10.28 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Not both teams score | 52% | 1.94 |
| St Mirren to score | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Hibernian to score | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| St Mirren clean sheet | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Hibernian clean sheet | 34% | 2.92 |
| Home leads at half-time | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Level at half-time | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.56 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 23% | 4.44 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 62% | 1.62 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren win | 30% | 3.24 | 3.33 | -2.7% |
| Hibernian win | 43% | 2.03 | 2.33 | -12.9% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 | 3.69 | -2.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 1.63 | 2.31 | -29.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 2.17 | 1.76 | +23.0% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | St Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Corners for / against | 4.2 / 6.5 | 6.4 / 5.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren | #11 | 1.06 | 1.44 |
| Hibernian | #4 | 1.43 | 1.21 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.3 goals per meeting