Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Carlisle host Harrogate on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Carlisle are 11th in the table and Harrogate are 2nd.
The model gives Carlisle a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Harrogate 33%. It expects 1.8 goals from Carlisle and 1.5 from Harrogate, with a 65% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Carlisle won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Harrogate won 5, drew 0 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Carlisle's last 10 matches and 7 of Harrogate's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Carlisle have 2 wins from 7, scoring 2.1 a game; away from home Harrogate have 4 wins from 6, conceding 1.3 a game.
Notable run: Harrogate, scored in the last 14 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Carlisle win | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Harrogate win | 33% | 3.03 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.49 | |
| No draw | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Away or draw | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 43% | 2.35 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.18 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.44 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Not both teams score | 35% | 2.89 |
| Carlisle to score | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Harrogate to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Carlisle clean sheet | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Harrogate clean sheet | 16% | 6.08 |
| Home leads at half-time | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both score 1st half | 27% | 3.75 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 37% | 2.72 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.76 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 45% | 1.95 | 2.25 | -13.2% |
| Harrogate win | 33% | 3.19 | 3.03 | +5.1% |
| Draw | 23% | 3.61 | 4.44 | -18.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | 1.54 | +0.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.30 | 2.84 | -18.9% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 38:13 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32:18 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33:21 | +12 | 28 | LDWWD |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 27 | WDWWW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22:20 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 33:17 | +16 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 24:22 | +2 | 23 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Halifax | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24:17 | +7 | 21 | LDWWD |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25:21 | +4 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Kidderminster | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23:22 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | +1 | 18 | WLLLL |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 18 | LDLLW |
| 16 | Sutton | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15:21 | -6 | 18 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 15 | WDLLW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14:20 | -6 | 15 | LLLWW |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21:30 | -9 | 14 | WLWWL |
| 21 | Boston Utd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 10 | LWLLL |
| 23 | Solihull | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14:37 | -23 | 7 | LWLLL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8:31 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Carlisle | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.70 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Corners for / against | 6.8 / 4.2 | 5.2 / 4.6 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | #5 | 1.75 | 1.23 |
| Harrogate | #2 | 1.90 | 1.31 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.