Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Degerfors host Vasteras SK on Wed 28 Oct at 18:00. Degerfors are 14th in the table and Vasteras SK are 6th.
The model gives Degerfors a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Vasteras SK 43%. It expects 1.1 goals from Degerfors and 1.4 from Vasteras SK, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
Degerfors won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Vasteras SK won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Degerfors's last 10 matches and 4 of Vasteras SK's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Degerfors have 3 wins from 12, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Vasteras SK have 6 wins from 12, conceding 1.9 a game.
In their last 1 league meeting, Degerfors won 0, Vasteras SK won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 12 Jul, finished Vasteras SK 2-0 Degerfors.
Notable run: Degerfors, over 1.5 goals in the last 13 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Degerfors win | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Vasteras SK win | 43% | 2.33 |
| Home or draw | 57% | 1.75 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 59% | 1.70 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10% | 9.65 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Not both teams score | 50% | 1.98 |
| Degerfors to score | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Vasteras SK to score | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Degerfors clean sheet | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Vasteras SK clean sheet | 33% | 3.00 |
| Home leads at half-time | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Level at half-time | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.60 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.18 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors win | 30% | 2.41 | 3.32 | -27.3% |
| Vasteras SK win | 43% | 2.73 | 2.33 | +16.9% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.27 | 3.70 | -11.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | – | 2.24 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | – | 1.81 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | +24 | 55 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | +31 | 49 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 52:23 | +29 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47:30 | +17 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:24 | +13 | 42 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | WLWLD |
| 8 | AIK | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:43 | -3 | 37 | DLLDW |
| 9 | Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35:44 | -9 | 37 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 39:43 | -4 | 33 | LLWLW |
| 11 | GAIS | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31:26 | +5 | 31 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Mjallby | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 28:42 | -14 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Kalmar | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23:41 | -18 | 22 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Degerfors | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 21:41 | -20 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Orgryte | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31:56 | -25 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18:46 | -28 | 17 | LWLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Degerfors | Vasteras SK |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 0.90 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors | #13 | 1.03 | 1.53 |
| Vasteras SK | #11 | 1.33 | 1.38 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.0 goals per meeting