Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Hearts host Rangers on Wed 28 Oct at 20:00. Hearts are 3rd in the table and Rangers are 2nd.
The model gives Hearts a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rangers 35%. It expects 1.5 goals from Hearts and 1.4 from Rangers, with a 55% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Hearts won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Rangers won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Hearts's last 10 matches and 5 of Rangers's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Hearts have 4 wins from 4, scoring 3.3 a game; away from home Rangers have 3 wins from 5, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Hearts won 3, Rangers won 3 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.2 goals. The most recent, on Mon 4 May, finished Hearts 2-1 Rangers.
Notable run: Hearts, over 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Hearts win | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Rangers win | 35% | 2.89 |
| Home or draw | 65% | 1.53 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 46% | 2.18 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.65 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Not both teams score | 42% | 2.41 |
| Hearts to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Rangers to score | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Hearts clean sheet | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Rangers clean sheet | 22% | 4.59 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Level at half-time | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both score 1st half | 24% | 4.20 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.41 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.31 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 11% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 41% | 3.11 | 2.44 | +27.3% |
| Rangers win | 35% | 2.10 | 2.89 | -27.4% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.61 | 4.08 | -11.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.60 | 1.80 | -11.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | 2.25 | -0.3% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Hearts | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| Corners for / against | 6.7 / 3.8 | 7.7 / 4.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts | #3 | 1.69 | 1.10 |
| Rangers | #2 | 1.94 | 1.07 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.2 goals per meeting