Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Aberdeen host Falkirk on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Aberdeen are 9th in the table and Falkirk are 7th.
The model gives Aberdeen a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Falkirk 33%. It expects 1.4 goals from Aberdeen and 1.2 from Falkirk, with a 47% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Aberdeen won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Falkirk won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Aberdeen's last 10 matches and 6 of Falkirk's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Aberdeen have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Falkirk have 1 win from 5, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 3 league meetings, Aberdeen won 0, Falkirk won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.3 goals. The most recent, on Sat 14 Mar, finished Aberdeen 1-1 Falkirk.
Notable run: Falkirk, under 3.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Aberdeen win | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Falkirk win | 33% | 3.05 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.49 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.24 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.61 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Not both teams score | 48% | 2.07 |
| Aberdeen to score | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Falkirk to score | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Aberdeen clean sheet | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Falkirk clean sheet | 26% | 3.90 |
| Home leads at half-time | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.07 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 4.06 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 44% | 2.27 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 8% | |||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 41% | 2.02 | 2.45 | -17.6% |
| Falkirk win | 33% | 3.38 | 3.05 | +11.0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.47 | 3.80 | -8.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 1.81 | 2.13 | -14.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.93 | 1.89 | +2.3% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Aberdeen | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 5.9 / 6.1 | 4.8 / 6.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | #8 | 1.16 | 1.38 |
| Falkirk | #6 | 1.33 | 1.39 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.3 goals per meeting