Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
St Johnstone host Motherwell on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. St Johnstone are 8th in the table and Motherwell are 10th.
The model gives St Johnstone a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Motherwell 41%. It expects 1.2 goals from St Johnstone and 1.3 from Motherwell, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
St Johnstone won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Motherwell won 0, drew 0 and lost 5 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of St Johnstone's last 10 matches and 6 of Motherwell's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 4 respectively.
At home this season St Johnstone have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Motherwell have 1 win from 5, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, St Johnstone won 1, Motherwell won 3 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 26 Apr, finished Motherwell 3-2 St Johnstone.
Notable run: Motherwell, a first-half goal in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| St Johnstone win | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Motherwell win | 41% | 2.46 |
| Home or draw | 59% | 1.68 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.81 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.33 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Not both teams score | 50% | 2.01 |
| St Johnstone to score | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Motherwell to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| St Johnstone clean sheet | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Motherwell clean sheet | 31% | 3.19 |
| Home leads at half-time | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.27 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.21 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.57 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 11% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone win | 33% | 2.45 | 3.06 | -20.0% |
| Motherwell win | 41% | 2.66 | 2.46 | +7.9% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.41 | 3.74 | -8.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 1.77 | 2.21 | -19.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.97 | 1.83 | +7.8% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | St Johnstone | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 3.2 / 7.6 | 5 / 5.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone | #10 | 1.11 | 1.49 |
| Motherwell | #5 | 1.37 | 1.25 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting