Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Hammarby host Sirius on Thu 29 Oct at 17:30. Hammarby are 2nd in the table and Sirius are 1st.
The model gives Hammarby a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sirius 22%. It expects 2.1 goals from Hammarby and 1.2 from Sirius, with a 63% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Hammarby won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Sirius won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Hammarby's last 10 matches and 6 of Sirius's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Hammarby have 9 wins from 12, scoring 2.8 a game; away from home Sirius have 10 wins from 12, conceding 1.1 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Hammarby won 3, Sirius won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Mon 13 Apr, finished Sirius 2-0 Hammarby.
Notable run: Sirius, scored in the last 12 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Hammarby win | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Sirius win | 22% | 4.57 |
| Home or draw | 78% | 1.28 | |
| No draw | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Away or draw | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 28% | 3.60 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Not both teams score | 39% | 2.57 |
| Hammarby to score | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Sirius to score | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Hammarby clean sheet | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Sirius clean sheet | 13% | 7.82 |
| Home leads at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Level at half-time | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both score 1st half | 25% | 3.95 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 33% | 3.04 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 1 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 3% | |||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 57% | 1.49 | 1.76 | -15.1% |
| Sirius win | 22% | 5.21 | 4.57 | +14.0% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.39 | 4.73 | -7.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | – | 1.58 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | – | 2.73 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | +24 | 55 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | +31 | 49 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 52:23 | +29 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47:30 | +17 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:24 | +13 | 42 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | WLWLD |
| 8 | AIK | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:43 | -3 | 37 | DLLDW |
| 9 | Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35:44 | -9 | 37 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 39:43 | -4 | 33 | LLWLW |
| 11 | GAIS | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31:26 | +5 | 31 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Mjallby | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 28:42 | -14 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Kalmar | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23:41 | -18 | 22 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Degerfors | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 21:41 | -20 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Orgryte | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31:56 | -25 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18:46 | -28 | 17 | LWLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Hammarby | Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 70%7/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.60 | 1.50 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby | #1 | 1.88 | 0.93 |
| Sirius | #3 | 1.93 | 1.42 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting