Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Venezia host Inter on Wed 28 Oct at 17:30. Venezia are 20th in the table and Inter are 1st.
The model gives Venezia a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Inter 76%. It expects 0.8 goals from Venezia and 2.6 from Inter, with a 67% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Venezia won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Inter won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Venezia's last 10 matches and 8 of Inter's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Venezia have 1 win from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Inter have 2 wins from 3, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Venezia won 0, Inter won 2 and 0 games ended level, averaging 1.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 12 Jan, finished Venezia 0-1 Inter.
Notable run: Venezia, no draw in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Away win, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Venezia win | 9% | 10.65 | |
| Draw | 15% | 6.75 | |
| Inter win | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home or draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| No draw | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Away or draw | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 11% | 9.07 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 6.96 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Not both teams score | 48% | 2.07 |
| Venezia to score | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Inter to score | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Venezia clean sheet | 7% | 13.64 | |
| Inter clean sheet | 44% | 2.27 |
| Home leads at half-time | 12% | 8.65 | |
| Level at half-time | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.96 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.48 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 77% | 1.30 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| 1 | 7% | 9% | 8% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 3% | ||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 9% | 7.73 | 10.65 | -27.4% |
| Inter win | 76% | 1.33 | 1.32 | +0.8% |
| Draw | 15% | 5.47 | 6.75 | -19.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.34 | 1.50 | -10.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.17 | 3.00 | +5.8% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Venezia | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 10%1/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Draw | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 90%9/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 50%5/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.80 | 2.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.30 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 5 / 5.2 | 6 / 2.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | #19 | 0.96 | 1.51 |
| Inter | #1 | 2.25 | 1.02 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.0 goals per meeting