Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Genoa host Juventus on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Genoa are 16th in the table and Juventus are 7th.
The model gives Genoa a 22% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Juventus 52%. It expects 0.8 goals from Genoa and 1.5 from Juventus, with a 41% chance of three or more goals and 44% that both teams score.
Genoa won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Juventus won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Genoa's last 10 matches and 3 of Juventus's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Genoa have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Juventus have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Genoa won 0, Juventus won 4 and 0 games ended level, averaging 1.8 goals. The most recent, on Mon 6 Apr, finished Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Notable run: Juventus, over 1.5 goals in the last 7 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 80%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Genoa win | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Juventus win | 52% | 1.92 |
| Home or draw | 48% | 2.08 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 71% | 1.42 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 11.64 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Not both teams score | 56% | 1.78 |
| Genoa to score | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Juventus to score | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Genoa clean sheet | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Juventus clean sheet | 43% | 2.33 |
| Home leads at half-time | 18% | 5.54 | |
| Level at half-time | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Both score 1st half | 14% | 6.93 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 22% | 4.63 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 15% | 11% | 5% | ||
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 22% | 5.18 | 4.63 | +12.0% |
| Juventus win | 52% | 1.68 | 1.92 | -12.7% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.66 | 3.79 | -3.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.03 | 2.45 | -17.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.73 | 1.69 | +2.3% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 | WDDWD |
| 4 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 8 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 9 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 | WWDLL |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 | WDWLD |
| 11 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 16 | Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 | LLLWL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Genoa | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 70%7/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 4.3 / 4.8 | 7.2 / 3.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | #15 | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| Juventus | #5 | 1.51 | 0.95 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.8 goals per meeting