Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Orgryte host Mjallby on Thu 29 Oct at 18:00. Orgryte are 15th in the table and Mjallby are 12th.
The model gives Orgryte a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mjallby 50%. It expects 1.3 goals from Orgryte and 1.8 from Mjallby, with a 60% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Orgryte won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Mjallby won 0, drew 2 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Orgryte's last 10 matches and 4 of Mjallby's last 10; both teams scored in 8 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Orgryte have 2 wins from 12, scoring 1.8 a game; away from home Mjallby have 2 wins from 12, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 1 league meeting, Orgryte won 1, Mjallby won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.0 goals. The most recent, on Sat 11 Apr, finished Mjallby 0-2 Orgryte.
Notable run: Mjallby, conceded in the last 12 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Orgryte win | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Mjallby win | 50% | 1.99 |
| Home or draw | 50% | 2.01 | |
| No draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away or draw | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 65% | 1.53 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.42 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Not both teams score | 40% | 2.53 |
| Orgryte to score | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Mjallby to score | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Orgryte clean sheet | 16% | 6.20 | |
| Mjallby clean sheet | 28% | 3.58 |
| Home leads at half-time | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both score 1st half | 24% | 4.09 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.13 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 8% | 8% | 5% | ||
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte win | 27% | 2.84 | 3.74 | -24.1% |
| Mjallby win | 50% | 2.24 | 1.99 | +12.7% |
| Draw | 23% | 3.44 | 4.35 | -21.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | – | 1.67 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | – | 2.49 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | +24 | 55 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | +31 | 49 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 52:23 | +29 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47:30 | +17 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:24 | +13 | 42 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | WLWLD |
| 8 | AIK | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:43 | -3 | 37 | DLLDW |
| 9 | Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35:44 | -9 | 37 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 39:43 | -4 | 33 | LLWLW |
| 11 | GAIS | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31:26 | +5 | 31 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Mjallby | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 28:42 | -14 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Kalmar | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23:41 | -18 | 22 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Degerfors | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 21:41 | -20 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Orgryte | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31:56 | -25 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18:46 | -28 | 17 | LWLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Orgryte | Mjallby |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 0%0/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.30 | 2.20 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte | #15 | 1.36 | 1.92 |
| Mjallby | #8 | 1.42 | 1.22 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.0 goals per meeting