Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Fluminense host Internacional on Wed 28 Oct at 22:30. Fluminense are 5th in the table and Internacional are 16th.
The model gives Fluminense a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Internacional 21%. It expects 1.6 goals from Fluminense and 0.9 from Internacional, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 47% that both teams score.
Fluminense won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Internacional won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Fluminense's last 10 matches and 5 of Internacional's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Fluminense have 11 wins from 16, scoring 1.8 a game; away from home Internacional have 3 wins from 16, conceding 1.4 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Fluminense won 2, Internacional won 2 and 2 games ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Sun 3 May, finished Internacional 2-0 Fluminense.
Notable run: Fluminense, conceded in the last 13 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Fluminense win | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Internacional win | 21% | 4.76 |
| Home or draw | 79% | 1.27 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 29% | 3.50 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10% | 9.67 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Not both teams score | 53% | 1.90 |
| Fluminense to score | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Internacional to score | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Internacional clean sheet | 21% | 4.78 |
| Home leads at half-time | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 5.97 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 22% | 4.46 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 13% | 13% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 53% | 1.86 | 1.90 | -2.3% |
| Internacional win | 21% | 4.03 | 4.76 | -15.4% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.45 | 3.78 | -8.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | – | 2.24 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | – | 1.80 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | WDWLD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | WWLLL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LLDWL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | LWLDD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | WDLWD |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | LWDLW |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | DDDLW |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | DLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Fluminense | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.90 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 1.30 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | #4 | 1.36 | 1.06 |
| Internacional | #12 | 1.22 | 1.20 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting