Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Santos host Palmeiras on Wed 28 Oct at 22:30. Santos are 8th in the table and Palmeiras are 2nd.
The model gives Santos a 27% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 46%. It expects 1.1 goals from Santos and 1.5 from Palmeiras, with a 47% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Santos won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Palmeiras won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Santos's last 10 matches and 3 of Palmeiras's last 10; both teams scored in 9 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Santos have 6 wins from 16, scoring 1.4 a game; away from home Palmeiras have 8 wins from 16, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 3 league meetings, Santos won 1, Palmeiras won 1 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.7 goals. The most recent, on Sat 2 May, finished Palmeiras 1-1 Santos.
Notable run: Santos, scored in the last 12 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Santos win | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Palmeiras win | 46% | 2.19 |
| Home or draw | 54% | 1.84 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 63% | 1.59 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 8.70 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Not both teams score | 49% | 2.05 |
| Santos to score | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Palmeiras to score | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Santos clean sheet | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 34% | 2.93 |
| Home leads at half-time | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.39 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 4.04 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 11% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos win | 27% | 3.01 | 3.69 | -18.5% |
| Palmeiras win | 46% | 2.26 | 2.19 | +3.3% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.32 | 3.68 | -9.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | – | 2.14 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | – | 1.88 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | WDWLD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | WWLLL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LLDWL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | LWLDD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | WDLWD |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | LWDLW |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | DDDLW |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | DLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Santos | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 90%9/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.70 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | #10 | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| Palmeiras | #2 | 1.69 | 0.80 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.7 goals per meeting