Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bahia host Sao Paulo on Thu 29 Oct at 00:30. Bahia are 7th in the table and Sao Paulo are 9th.
The model gives Bahia a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sao Paulo 25%. It expects 1.4 goals from Bahia and 0.9 from Sao Paulo, with a 42% chance of three or more goals and 47% that both teams score.
Bahia won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Sao Paulo won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Bahia's last 10 matches and 3 of Sao Paulo's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Bahia have 7 wins from 16, scoring 1.4 a game; away from home Sao Paulo have 2 wins from 16, conceding 1.4 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Bahia won 1, Sao Paulo won 4 and 1 game ended level, averaging 2.8 goals. The most recent, on Sun 3 May, finished Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
Notable run: Sao Paulo, under 3.5 goals in the last 17 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bahia win | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Sao Paulo win | 25% | 4.04 |
| Home or draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away or draw | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 34% | 2.90 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.91 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Not both teams score | 53% | 1.89 |
| Bahia to score | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Sao Paulo to score | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Bahia clean sheet | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Sao Paulo clean sheet | 24% | 4.11 |
| Home leads at half-time | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Level at half-time | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both score 1st half | 16% | 6.09 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 22% | 4.54 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 13% | 13% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia win | 47% | 1.99 | 2.12 | -6.2% |
| Sao Paulo win | 25% | 3.49 | 4.04 | -13.5% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 | 3.56 | -2.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | – | 2.37 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | – | 1.73 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | WDWLD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | WWLLL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LLDWL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | LWLDD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | WDLWD |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | LWDLW |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | DDDLW |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | DLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | #9 | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| Sao Paulo | #11 | 1.18 | 1.09 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.8 goals per meeting