Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Gremio host Athletico-PR on Fri 30 Oct at 00:30. Gremio are 17th in the table and Athletico-PR are 3rd.
The model gives Gremio a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Athletico-PR 34%. It expects 1.3 goals from Gremio and 1.2 from Athletico-PR, with a 47% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Gremio won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Athletico-PR won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Gremio's last 10 matches and 7 of Athletico-PR's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 9 respectively.
At home this season Gremio have 7 wins from 16, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Athletico-PR have 6 wins from 16, conceding 1.4 a game.
In their last 3 league meetings, Gremio won 2, Athletico-PR won 0 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.3 goals. The most recent, on Sun 3 May, finished Athletico-PR 0-0 Gremio.
Notable run: Athletico-PR, over 1.5 goals in the last 11 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Gremio win | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Athletico-PR win | 34% | 2.94 |
| Home or draw | 66% | 1.52 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Away or draw | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.12 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.62 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Not both teams score | 48% | 2.11 |
| Gremio to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Athletico-PR to score | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Gremio clean sheet | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Athletico-PR clean sheet | 27% | 3.74 |
| Home leads at half-time | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.24 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 3.93 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 8% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio win | 38% | 2.55 | 2.62 | -2.7% |
| Athletico-PR win | 34% | 2.60 | 2.94 | -11.4% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.31 | 3.60 | -8.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | – | 2.13 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | – | 1.89 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | WDWLD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | WWLLL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LLDWL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | LWLDD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | WDLWD |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | LWDLW |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | DDDLW |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | DLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Gremio | Athletico-PR |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.40 | 1.90 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | #16 | 1.19 | 1.27 |
| Athletico-PR | #5 | 1.42 | 1.15 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.3 goals per meeting