Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bournemouth host Leeds on Sat 31 Oct at 15:00. Bournemouth are 13th in the table and Leeds are 7th.
The model gives Bournemouth a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Leeds 28%. It expects 1.5 goals from Bournemouth and 1.2 from Leeds, with a 49% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Bournemouth won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Leeds won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches and 3 of Leeds's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Bournemouth have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Leeds have 1 win from 4, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Bournemouth won 0, Leeds won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 4.0 goals. The most recent, on Wed 22 Apr, finished Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds.
Notable run: Bournemouth, no draw in the last 4 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bournemouth win | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Leeds win | 28% | 3.53 |
| Home or draw | 72% | 1.40 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away or draw | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 39% | 2.54 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.75 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Not both teams score | 46% | 2.19 |
| Bournemouth to score | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Leeds to score | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Leeds clean sheet | 23% | 4.42 |
| Home leads at half-time | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.12 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.76 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 60% | 1.66 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bournemouth | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 40%4/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Corners for / against | 4.7 / 4.4 | 4.4 / 4.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | #7 | 1.53 | 1.28 |
| Leeds | #11 | 1.31 | 1.20 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.0 goals per meeting