Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Chelsea host Man United on Sat 31 Oct at 12:30. Chelsea are 5th in the table and Man United are 16th.
The model gives Chelsea a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Man United 30%. It expects 1.8 goals from Chelsea and 1.4 from Man United, with a 61% chance of three or more goals and 63% that both teams score.
Chelsea won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Man United won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 matches and 5 of Man United's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Chelsea have 2 wins from 4, scoring 2.8 a game; away from home Man United have 0 wins from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Chelsea won 1, Man United won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.8 goals. The most recent, on Sat 18 Apr, finished Chelsea 0-1 Man United.
Notable run: Chelsea, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Chelsea win | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Man United win | 30% | 3.36 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.42 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 40% | 2.51 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Not both teams score | 37% | 2.72 |
| Chelsea to score | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Man United to score | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Man United clean sheet | 17% | 5.76 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both score 1st half | 25% | 3.98 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 33% | 2.99 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 58% | 1.72 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Chelsea | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Corners for / against | 5.5 / 5.5 | 5.8 / 3.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | #5 | 1.64 | 1.33 |
| Man United | #9 | 1.53 | 1.31 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.8 goals per meeting