Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Man City host Brighton on Sat 31 Oct at 15:00. Man City are 1st in the table and Brighton are 3rd.
The model gives Man City a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Brighton 23%. It expects 1.9 goals from Man City and 1.2 from Brighton, with a 61% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Man City won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Brighton won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Man City's last 10 matches and 6 of Brighton's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 2 respectively.
At home this season Man City have 4 wins from 4, scoring 2.8 a game; away from home Brighton have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Man City won 0, Brighton won 2 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Wed 7 Jan, finished Man City 1-1 Brighton.
Notable run: Man City, no draw in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Man City win | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Brighton win | 23% | 4.38 |
| Home or draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 30% | 3.32 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.86 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Not both teams score | 39% | 2.55 |
| Man City to score | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Brighton to score | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Man City clean sheet | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Brighton clean sheet | 15% | 6.83 |
| Home leads at half-time | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both score 1st half | 24% | 4.17 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.13 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 52% | 1.91 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 11% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 3% | |||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Man City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Win | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Corners for / against | 6.1 / 4.4 | 5 / 4.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | #1 | 1.98 | 1.02 |
| Brighton | #4 | 1.72 | 1.20 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting