Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Liverpool host Arsenal on Sun 1 Nov at 16:30. Liverpool are 4th in the table and Arsenal are 2nd.
The model gives Liverpool a 29% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Arsenal 43%. It expects 1.1 goals from Liverpool and 1.4 from Arsenal, with a 47% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Liverpool won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Arsenal won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Liverpool's last 10 matches and 5 of Arsenal's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Liverpool have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Arsenal have 3 wins from 4, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 0 and 3 games ended level, averaging 2.3 goals. The most recent, on Thu 8 Jan, finished Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool.
Notable run: Arsenal, no draw in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 74%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Liverpool win | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Arsenal win | 43% | 2.35 |
| Home or draw | 57% | 1.74 | |
| No draw | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Away or draw | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 60% | 1.68 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.53 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.12 |
| Liverpool to score | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Arsenal to score | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 32% | 3.11 |
| Home leads at half-time | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.35 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.92 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 58% | 1.71 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 8% | 14% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Draw | 40%4/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| Corners for / against | 6.1 / 3.9 | 5.2 / 3.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | #3 | 1.74 | 1.19 |
| Arsenal | #2 | 1.74 | 0.80 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.3 goals per meeting