Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Crystal Palace host Liverpool on Sat 7 Nov at 15:00. Crystal Palace are 17th in the table and Liverpool are 4th.
The model gives Crystal Palace a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Liverpool 49%. It expects 1.2 goals from Crystal Palace and 1.7 from Liverpool, with a 56% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Crystal Palace won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Liverpool won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Crystal Palace's last 10 matches and 5 of Liverpool's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Crystal Palace have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Liverpool have 3 wins from 4, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Crystal Palace won 1, Liverpool won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 25 Apr, finished Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace.
Notable run: Liverpool, under 3.5 goals in the last 6 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 80%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Crystal Palace win | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Liverpool win | 49% | 2.03 |
| Home or draw | 51% | 1.97 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 66% | 1.50 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.84 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Not both teams score | 42% | 2.39 |
| Crystal Palace to score | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Liverpool to score | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 18% | 5.68 | |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 31% | 3.26 |
| Home leads at half-time | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.53 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 30% | 3.37 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 68% | 1.48 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 5% | ||
| 1 | 5% | 12% | 10% | 6% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.30 | 1.30 |
| Corners for / against | 3.6 / 5.7 | 6.1 / 3.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | #18 | 1.22 | 1.45 |
| Liverpool | #3 | 1.74 | 1.19 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting