Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Fulham host Newcastle on Sat 7 Nov at 15:00. Fulham are 15th in the table and Newcastle are 8th.
The model gives Fulham a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Newcastle 35%. It expects 1.4 goals from Fulham and 1.3 from Newcastle, with a 51% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Fulham won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Newcastle won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Fulham's last 10 matches and 6 of Newcastle's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Fulham have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Newcastle have 2 wins from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Fulham won 3, Newcastle won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 24 May, finished Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Notable run: Fulham, under 3.5 goals in the last 5 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Fulham win | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Newcastle win | 35% | 2.89 |
| Home or draw | 65% | 1.53 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away or draw | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 48% | 2.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.18 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.29 |
| Fulham to score | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Newcastle to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Fulham clean sheet | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 25% | 4.00 |
| Home leads at half-time | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.85 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 38% | 2.62 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 4% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 6.1 / 4.3 | 5.1 / 5.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | #15 | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| Newcastle | #10 | 1.53 | 1.38 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting