Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Sunderland host Chelsea on Sat 7 Nov at 15:00. Sunderland are 20th in the table and Chelsea are 5th.
The model gives Sunderland a 30% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Chelsea 42%. It expects 1.2 goals from Sunderland and 1.5 from Chelsea, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Sunderland won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Chelsea won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Sunderland's last 10 matches and 8 of Chelsea's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Sunderland have 1 win from 4, scoring 0.3 a game; away from home Chelsea have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 24 May, finished Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea.
Notable run: Chelsea, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Sunderland win | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Chelsea win | 42% | 2.40 |
| Home or draw | 58% | 1.71 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away or draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.56 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.22 |
| Sunderland to score | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Chelsea to score | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 30% | 3.35 |
| Home leads at half-time | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.02 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.70 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 66% | 1.52 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | +16 | 16 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 | DLWWL |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | +5 | 11 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 11 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 | DLLWW |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DLDWW |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 16 | Man United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 | LLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 4.3 / 4.4 | 5.5 / 5.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | #17 | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| Chelsea | #5 | 1.64 | 1.33 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting