Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bolton host Bristol City on Sat 31 Oct at 15:00. Bolton are 18th in the table and Bristol City are 14th.
The model gives Bolton a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bristol City 34%. It expects 1.4 goals from Bolton and 1.3 from Bristol City, with a 52% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Bolton won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Bristol City won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Bolton's last 10 matches and 4 of Bristol City's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Bolton have 2 wins from 6, scoring 1.2 a game; away from home Bristol City have 2 wins from 6, conceding 1.5 a game.
Notable run: Bolton, no draw in the last 6 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bolton win | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Bristol City win | 34% | 2.90 |
| Home or draw | 66% | 1.53 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.13 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.29 |
| Bolton to score | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Bristol City to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Bolton clean sheet | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 24% | 4.18 |
| Home leads at half-time | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.54 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.63 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 47% | 2.12 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bolton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.20 | 1.10 |
| Corners for / against | 5.4 / 5.8 | 5.7 / 5.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | #20 | 1.32 | 1.61 |
| Bristol City | #14 | 1.20 | 1.28 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.