Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Millwall host Derby on Sat 31 Oct at 15:00. Millwall are 13th in the table and Derby are 23rd.
The model gives Millwall a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Derby 24%. It expects 1.5 goals from Millwall and 1.0 from Derby, with a 46% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Millwall won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Derby won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Millwall's last 10 matches and 4 of Derby's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Millwall have 2 wins from 6, scoring 1.8 a game; away from home Derby have 1 win from 6, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Millwall won 2, Derby won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Tue 10 Mar, finished Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Notable run: Derby, without a win in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Millwall win | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Derby win | 24% | 4.12 |
| Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 33% | 3.01 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.23 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.98 |
| Millwall to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Derby to score | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Millwall clean sheet | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Derby clean sheet | 22% | 4.52 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.48 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 23% | 4.34 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 50% | 2.01 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 5.5 / 6.2 | 5.7 / 5.3 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | #7 | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| Derby | #16 | 1.21 | 1.34 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting