Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Southampton host QPR on Sat 31 Oct at 15:00. Southampton are 2nd in the table and QPR are 8th.
The model gives Southampton a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and QPR 18%. It expects 2.1 goals from Southampton and 1.1 from QPR, with a 62% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Southampton won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; QPR won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Southampton's last 10 matches and 6 of QPR's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Southampton have 5 wins from 6, scoring 2.7 a game; away from home QPR have 2 wins from 6, conceding 1.2 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Southampton won 2, QPR won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 4.0 goals. The most recent, on Tue 24 Feb, finished Southampton 5-0 QPR.
Notable run: Southampton, unbeaten in the last 6 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Southampton win | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| QPR win | 18% | 5.63 |
| Home or draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| No draw | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Away or draw | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 22% | 4.45 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 6.05 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Not both teams score | 41% | 2.41 |
| Southampton to score | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| QPR to score | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Southampton clean sheet | 34% | 2.93 | |
| QPR clean sheet | 12% | 8.51 |
| Home leads at half-time | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Level at half-time | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both score 1st half | 24% | 4.09 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 30% | 3.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.75 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 1 | 8% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 7% | 7% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| Corners for / against | 4.9 / 5.3 | 5.4 / 3.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | #2 | 1.79 | 1.16 |
| QPR | #13 | 1.35 | 1.41 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.0 goals per meeting