Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Derby host Norwich on Tue 3 Nov at 19:45. Derby are 23rd in the table and Norwich are 20th.
The model gives Derby a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Norwich 35%. It expects 1.4 goals from Derby and 1.4 from Norwich, with a 53% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Derby won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Norwich won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Derby's last 10 matches and 7 of Norwich's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Derby have 0 wins from 6, scoring 0.7 a game; away from home Norwich have 2 wins from 6, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Derby won 1, Norwich won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 2.8 goals. The most recent, on Tue 21 Apr, finished Norwich 2-1 Derby.
Notable run: Norwich, no draw in the last 12 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Derby win | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Norwich win | 35% | 2.89 |
| Home or draw | 65% | 1.53 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.13 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.57 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Not both teams score | 43% | 2.33 |
| Derby to score | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Norwich to score | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Derby clean sheet | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Norwich clean sheet | 23% | 4.26 |
| Home leads at half-time | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both score 1st half | 23% | 4.44 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.56 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 55% | 1.82 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Derby | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 5.7 / 5.3 | 4.2 / 3.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | #16 | 1.21 | 1.34 |
| Norwich | #9 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.8 goals per meeting