Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bristol City host Norwich on Sat 7 Nov at 12:30. Bristol City are 14th in the table and Norwich are 20th.
The model gives Bristol City a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Norwich 33%. It expects 1.4 goals from Bristol City and 1.3 from Norwich, with a 51% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Bristol City won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Norwich won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Bristol City's last 10 matches and 7 of Norwich's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Bristol City have 2 wins from 6, scoring 0.5 a game; away from home Norwich have 2 wins from 6, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Bristol City won 3, Norwich won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sat 18 Apr, finished Bristol City 2-4 Norwich.
Notable run: Norwich, no draw in the last 12 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bristol City win | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Norwich win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.50 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.21 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.08 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.26 |
| Bristol City to score | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Norwich to score | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Norwich clean sheet | 24% | 4.22 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.62 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.69 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 61% | 1.65 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bristol City | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 10%1/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.00 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 5.7 / 5.1 | 4.2 / 3.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | #14 | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| Norwich | #9 | 1.47 | 1.41 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting