Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
West Brom host Millwall on Sat 7 Nov at 15:00. West Brom are 6th in the table and Millwall are 13th.
The model gives West Brom a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Millwall 33%. It expects 1.2 goals from West Brom and 1.1 from Millwall, with a 39% chance of three or more goals and 46% that both teams score.
West Brom won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Millwall won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of West Brom's last 10 matches and 8 of Millwall's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 6 respectively.
At home this season West Brom have 3 wins from 6, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Millwall have 2 wins from 6, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, West Brom won 0, Millwall won 1 and 3 games ended level, averaging 1.3 goals. The most recent, on Fri 10 Apr, finished West Brom 0-0 Millwall.
Notable run: West Brom, conceded in the last 6 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 81%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| West Brom win | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Millwall win | 33% | 3.05 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.49 | |
| No draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Away or draw | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.14 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 5.27 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8% | 12.90 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Not both teams score | 54% | 1.85 |
| West Brom to score | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Millwall to score | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 29% | 3.42 | |
| West Brom clean sheet | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Millwall clean sheet | 31% | 3.22 |
| Home leads at half-time | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Level at half-time | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Both score 1st half | 16% | 6.16 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 21% | 4.85 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 52% | 1.94 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 3% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | West Brom | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| Corners for / against | 6.5 / 5.8 | 5.5 / 6.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | #12 | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| Millwall | #7 | 1.33 | 1.19 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.3 goals per meeting