Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Forest Green host Eastleigh on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Forest Green are 17th in the table and Eastleigh are 15th.
The model gives Forest Green a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Eastleigh 20%. It expects 1.9 goals from Forest Green and 1.0 from Eastleigh, with a 57% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Forest Green won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Eastleigh won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Forest Green's last 10 matches and 5 of Eastleigh's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Forest Green have 2 wins from 7, scoring 1.7 a game; away from home Eastleigh have 1 win from 6, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Forest Green won 4, Eastleigh won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 28 Mar, finished Eastleigh 2-4 Forest Green.
Notable run: Forest Green, scored in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 80%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Forest Green win | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Draw | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Eastleigh win | 20% | 5.10 |
| Home or draw | 80% | 1.24 | |
| No draw | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Away or draw | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 25% | 4.00 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.22 |
| Forest Green to score | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Eastleigh to score | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Forest Green clean sheet | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Eastleigh clean sheet | 14% | 6.98 |
| Home leads at half-time | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Level at half-time | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.81 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.43 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 54% | 1.85 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 6% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 3% | 3% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 59% | 1.52 | 1.70 | -10.6% |
| Eastleigh win | 20% | 4.93 | 5.10 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.25 | 4.63 | -8.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.49 | 1.75 | -15.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.44 | 2.33 | +4.9% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 38:13 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 32:18 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 33:21 | +12 | 28 | LDWWD |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29:19 | +10 | 27 | WDWWW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22:20 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Yeovil | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 33:17 | +16 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Fylde | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 24:22 | +2 | 23 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Halifax | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24:17 | +7 | 21 | LDWWD |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | Hornchurch | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25:21 | +4 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Kidderminster | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | LLDDL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23:22 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | +1 | 18 | WLLLL |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 18 | LDLLW |
| 16 | Sutton | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15:21 | -6 | 18 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 15 | WDLLW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14:20 | -6 | 15 | LLLWW |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21:30 | -9 | 14 | WLWWL |
| 21 | Boston Utd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 10 | LWLLL |
| 23 | Solihull | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14:37 | -23 | 7 | LWLLL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8:31 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Forest Green | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 6 / 4.7 | 3.7 / 4.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | #7 | 1.58 | 1.26 |
| Eastleigh | #21 | 1.24 | 1.57 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting