Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Lille host Lens on Fri 30 Oct at 21:05. Lille are 3rd in the table and Lens are 7th.
The model gives Lille a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lens 31%. It expects 1.3 goals from Lille and 1.1 from Lens, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Lille won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Lens won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Lille's last 10 matches and 8 of Lens's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Lille have 2 wins from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Lens have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Lille won 3, Lens won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.3 goals. The most recent, on Sat 4 Apr, finished Lille 3-0 Lens.
Notable run: Lille, scored in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Lille win | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Lens win | 31% | 3.23 |
| Home or draw | 69% | 1.45 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 43% | 2.31 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.50 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Not both teams score | 49% | 2.03 |
| Lille to score | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Lens to score | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Lille clean sheet | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Lens clean sheet | 26% | 3.81 |
| Home leads at half-time | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Level at half-time | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 5.85 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 3.96 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.56 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Lille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 50%5/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 3 / 4.7 | 6.6 / 4.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | #5 | 1.46 | 0.99 |
| Lens | #2 | 1.76 | 1.15 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.3 goals per meeting