Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Lorient host Brest on Sat 31 Oct at 20:45. Lorient are 9th in the table and Brest are 13th.
The model gives Lorient a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brest 27%. It expects 1.6 goals from Lorient and 1.1 from Brest, with a 52% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Lorient won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Brest won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Lorient's last 10 matches and 7 of Brest's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 9 respectively.
At home this season Lorient have 2 wins from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Brest have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Lorient won 0, Brest won 1 and 1 game ended level, averaging 4.0 goals. The most recent, on Sat 7 Feb, finished Brest 2-0 Lorient.
Notable run: Brest, conceded in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Lorient win | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Brest win | 27% | 3.74 |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 36% | 2.76 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.88 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.24 |
| Lorient to score | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Brest to score | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Lorient clean sheet | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Brest clean sheet | 20% | 4.97 |
| Home leads at half-time | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.09 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.49 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 7% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Lorient | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 60%6/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| Corners for / against | 3.4 / 5.3 | 4.8 / 4.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | #11 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Brest | #12 | 1.46 | 1.51 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.0 goals per meeting