Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Troyes host Le Mans on Sat 31 Oct at 20:45. Troyes are 17th in the table and Le Mans are 15th.
The model gives Troyes a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Le Mans 42%. It expects 1.3 goals from Troyes and 1.6 from Le Mans, with a 55% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Troyes won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Le Mans won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Troyes's last 8 matches and 6 of Le Mans's last 8; both teams scored in 3 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Troyes have 0 wins from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Le Mans have 0 wins from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
Notable run: Le Mans, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Troyes win | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Le Mans win | 42% | 2.38 |
| Home or draw | 58% | 1.72 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 57% | 1.76 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.09 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Not both teams score | 42% | 2.41 |
| Troyes to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Le Mans to score | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Troyes clean sheet | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 27% | 3.77 |
| Home leads at half-time | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.68 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 31% | 3.24 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.56 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 8% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 3% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Troyes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 75%6/8 | 100%8/8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%6/8 | 100%8/8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38%3/8 | 75%6/8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%2/8 | 50%4/8 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13%1/8 | 13%1/8 |
| Both teams score | 38%3/8 | 88%7/8 |
| Win | 13%1/8 | 13%1/8 |
| Draw | 25%2/8 | 50%4/8 |
| Loss | 63%5/8 | 38%3/8 |
| Clean sheet | 25%2/8 | 0%0/8 |
| Failed to score | 63%5/8 | 13%1/8 |
| Goal in 1st half | 63%5/8 | 75%6/8 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 38%3/8 | 50%4/8 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners for / against | 6.5 / 2.38 | 2.5 / 6 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes | #18 | 1.03 | 1.67 |
| Le Mans | #15 | 1.42 | 1.60 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.