Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Marseille host Toulouse on Sun 1 Nov at 20:45. Marseille are 8th in the table and Toulouse are 11th.
The model gives Marseille a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 23%. It expects 2.0 goals from Marseille and 1.2 from Toulouse, with a 63% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Marseille won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Toulouse won 2, drew 3 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Marseille's last 10 matches and 6 of Toulouse's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Marseille have 2 wins from 4, scoring 2.8 a game; away from home Toulouse have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Marseille won 3, Toulouse won 0 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 7 Mar, finished Toulouse 0-1 Marseille.
Notable run: Marseille, no draw in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Marseille win | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Toulouse win | 23% | 4.36 |
| Home or draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| No draw | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Away or draw | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 30% | 3.37 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.17 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Not both teams score | 38% | 2.62 |
| Marseille to score | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Toulouse to score | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Marseille clean sheet | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 14% | 7.32 |
| Home leads at half-time | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both score 1st half | 24% | 4.17 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 34% | 2.93 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 78% | 1.28 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 3% | |||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 0%0/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 3.9 / 4.8 | 4.2 / 4.3 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | #3 | 1.95 | 1.35 |
| Toulouse | #10 | 1.41 | 1.27 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting