Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Toulouse host Strasbourg on Fri 6 Nov at 20:45. Toulouse are 11th in the table and Strasbourg are 16th.
The model gives Toulouse a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 33%. It expects 1.6 goals from Toulouse and 1.4 from Strasbourg, with a 57% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Toulouse won 2, drew 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Strasbourg won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Toulouse's last 10 matches and 9 of Strasbourg's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Toulouse have 1 win from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Strasbourg have 1 win from 5, conceding 2.6 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Sun 3 May, finished Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse.
Notable run: Strasbourg, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 80%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Toulouse win | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Strasbourg win | 33% | 3.02 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.49 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 44% | 2.25 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Not both teams score | 40% | 2.53 |
| Toulouse to score | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Strasbourg to score | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 21% | 4.88 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both score 1st half | 23% | 4.44 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.09 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 81% | 1.23 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 6% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 50%5/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.20 | 2.30 |
| Corners for / against | 4.2 / 4.3 | 2.7 / 5.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | #10 | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| Strasbourg | #8 | 1.68 | 1.40 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting