Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Auxerre host Paris FC on Sat 7 Nov at 17:15. Auxerre are 12th in the table and Paris FC are 6th.
The model gives Auxerre a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paris FC 38%. It expects 1.3 goals from Auxerre and 1.4 from Paris FC, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Auxerre won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Paris FC won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Auxerre's last 10 matches and 7 of Paris FC's last 10; both teams scored in 8 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Auxerre have 2 wins from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Paris FC have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 1.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 8 Feb, finished Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Notable run: Auxerre, scored in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 75%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Auxerre win | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Paris FC win | 38% | 2.62 |
| Home or draw | 62% | 1.62 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Away or draw | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.90 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.64 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.21 |
| Auxerre to score | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Paris FC to score | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 28% | 3.63 |
| Home leads at half-time | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.23 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.57 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 49% | 2.03 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 3% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Auxerre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.90 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 5.8 / 5.9 | 3.3 / 4.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | #14 | 1.28 | 1.40 |
| Paris FC | #9 | 1.49 | 1.25 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.0 goals per meeting