Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Paris SG host Troyes on Sat 7 Nov at 20:45. Paris SG are 1st in the table and Troyes are 17th.
The model gives Paris SG a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Troyes 5%. It expects 3.0 goals from Paris SG and 0.6 from Troyes, with a 70% chance of three or more goals and 45% that both teams score.
Paris SG won 5, drew 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Troyes won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Paris SG's last 10 matches and 3 of Troyes's last 8; both teams scored in 7 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Paris SG have 2 wins from 3, scoring 2.0 a game; away from home Troyes have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.3 a game.
Notable run: Paris SG, scored in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home win, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Paris SG win | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Draw | 12% | 8.62 | |
| Troyes win | 5% | 19.88 |
| Home or draw | 95% | 1.05 | |
| No draw | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Away or draw | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 6% | 17.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12% | 8.12 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Not both teams score | 55% | 1.83 |
| Paris SG to score | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Troyes to score | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 14% | 7.33 | |
| Paris SG clean sheet | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Troyes clean sheet | 5% | 19.16 |
| Home leads at half-time | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Level at half-time | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 8% | 12.52 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.69 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 25% | 4.03 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | |||||
| 1 | 8% | 6% | ||||
| 2 | 12% | 8% | ||||
| 3 | 12% | 8% | ||||
| 4 | 9% | 6% | ||||
| 5 | 5% | 3% |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:9 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DWDLD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DLWWD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LLWDL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DWLLD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Paris SG | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 75%6/8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 75%6/8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 25%2/8 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 13%1/8 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 13%1/8 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 25%2/8 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 63%5/8 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 25%2/8 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 63%5/8 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 63%5/8 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 10%1/10 | 38%3/8 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.90 | 0.63 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 2.00 |
| Corners for / against | 5.3 / 2.6 | 6.5 / 2.38 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | #1 | 2.20 | 0.96 |
| Troyes | #18 | 1.03 | 1.67 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.