Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Heerenveen host Nijmegen on Sat 31 Oct at 18:45. Heerenveen are 7th in the table and Nijmegen are 12th.
The model gives Heerenveen a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nijmegen 35%. It expects 1.7 goals from Heerenveen and 1.6 from Nijmegen, with a 63% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Heerenveen won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Nijmegen won 0, drew 4 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Heerenveen's last 10 matches and 8 of Nijmegen's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 9 respectively.
At home this season Heerenveen have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.4 a game; away from home Nijmegen have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Heerenveen won 2, Nijmegen won 1 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.3 goals. The most recent, on Sun 22 Mar, finished Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen.
Notable run: Nijmegen, over 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 85%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Heerenveen win | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Nijmegen win | 35% | 2.82 |
| Home or draw | 65% | 1.55 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.11 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.46 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Not both teams score | 35% | 2.89 |
| Heerenveen to score | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Nijmegen to score | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Nijmegen clean sheet | 19% | 5.33 |
| Home leads at half-time | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both score 1st half | 27% | 3.76 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 35% | 2.84 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 67% | 1.50 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32:11 | +21 | 24 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29:13 | +16 | 21 | WDDWW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 20 | WLWLD |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | +9 | 20 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWLDL |
| 6 | For Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18:13 | +5 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24:21 | +3 | 15 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 0 | 14 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19:22 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 11 | LDDDD |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 11 | LDLLL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 9 | LLDWL |
| 15 | Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12:21 | -9 | 6 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10:32 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Heerenveen | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.80 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 4.8 / 5.2 | 6.3 / 3.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | #8 | 1.62 | 1.42 |
| Nijmegen | #6 | 1.87 | 1.47 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.3 goals per meeting