Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Excelsior host Twente on Sun 1 Nov at 14:30. Excelsior are 13th in the table and Twente are 4th.
The model gives Excelsior a 27% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Twente 47%. It expects 1.2 goals from Excelsior and 1.7 from Twente, with a 54% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Excelsior won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Twente won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Excelsior's last 10 matches and 5 of Twente's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Excelsior have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Twente have 2 wins from 5, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Excelsior won 1, Twente won 0 and 1 game ended level, averaging 0.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 24 Jan, finished Twente 0-0 Excelsior.
Notable run: Twente, scored in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Excelsior win | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Twente win | 47% | 2.13 |
| Home or draw | 53% | 1.89 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away or draw | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 64% | 1.56 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.19 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Not both teams score | 42% | 2.36 |
| Excelsior to score | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Twente to score | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Twente clean sheet | 30% | 3.32 |
| Home leads at half-time | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.61 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.43 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 69% | 1.46 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 6% | 13% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32:11 | +21 | 24 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29:13 | +16 | 21 | WDDWW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 20 | WLWLD |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | +9 | 20 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWLDL |
| 6 | For Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18:13 | +5 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24:21 | +3 | 15 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 0 | 14 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19:22 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 11 | LDDDD |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 11 | LDLLL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 9 | LLDWL |
| 15 | Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12:21 | -9 | 6 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10:32 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Excelsior | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.90 | 1.00 |
| Corners for / against | 3.8 / 5.3 | 7 / 3.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | #12 | 1.46 | 1.56 |
| Twente | #4 | 1.79 | 1.18 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
0.5 goals per meeting