Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Groningen host Sparta Rotterdam on Sun 1 Nov at 16:45. Groningen are 8th in the table and Sparta Rotterdam are 14th.
The model gives Groningen a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sparta Rotterdam 22%. It expects 1.9 goals from Groningen and 1.2 from Sparta Rotterdam, with a 60% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Groningen won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Sparta Rotterdam won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Groningen's last 10 matches and 9 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10; both teams scored in 9 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Groningen have 2 wins from 5, scoring 2.2 a game; away from home Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from 4, conceding 2.5 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Groningen won 1, Sparta Rotterdam won 3 and 0 games ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 31 Jan, finished Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Notable run: Groningen, over 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Groningen win | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 22% | 4.47 |
| Home or draw | 78% | 1.29 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 30% | 3.38 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Not both teams score | 40% | 2.50 |
| Groningen to score | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam to score | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Groningen clean sheet | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet | 15% | 6.72 |
| Home leads at half-time | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both score 1st half | 23% | 4.26 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 31% | 3.20 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 33% | 3.01 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 11% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32:11 | +21 | 24 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29:13 | +16 | 21 | WDDWW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 20 | WLWLD |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | +9 | 20 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWLDL |
| 6 | For Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18:13 | +5 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24:21 | +3 | 15 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 0 | 14 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19:22 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 11 | LDDDD |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 11 | LDLLL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 9 | LLDWL |
| 15 | Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12:21 | -9 | 6 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10:32 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.40 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.10 | 2.40 |
| Corners for / against | 4.6 / 5.2 | 5.6 / 6.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | #9 | 1.65 | 1.46 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | #15 | 1.36 | 1.65 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting