Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Telstar host Utrecht on Sun 1 Nov at 14:30. Telstar are 16th in the table and Utrecht are 11th.
The model gives Telstar a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Utrecht 39%. It expects 1.5 goals from Telstar and 1.6 from Utrecht, with a 61% chance of three or more goals and 64% that both teams score.
Telstar won 0, drew 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Utrecht won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Telstar's last 10 matches and 9 of Utrecht's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 9 respectively.
At home this season Telstar have 0 wins from 5, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Utrecht have 2 wins from 5, conceding 2.4 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Telstar won 0, Utrecht won 1 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 11 Apr, finished Utrecht 4-1 Telstar.
Notable run: Utrecht, over 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Telstar win | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Utrecht win | 39% | 2.56 |
| Home or draw | 61% | 1.64 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 53% | 1.90 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Not both teams score | 36% | 2.76 |
| Telstar to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Utrecht to score | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Telstar clean sheet | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Utrecht clean sheet | 22% | 4.60 |
| Home leads at half-time | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both score 1st half | 25% | 3.94 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 34% | 2.97 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.76 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 6% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 3% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32:11 | +21 | 24 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29:13 | +16 | 21 | WDDWW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 20 | WLWLD |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | +9 | 20 | WWDLW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | DWLDL |
| 6 | For Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:17 | 0 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18:13 | +5 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24:21 | +3 | 15 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23:23 | 0 | 14 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19:22 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:27 | -10 | 12 | WLWWD |
| 12 | Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17:18 | -1 | 11 | LDDDD |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 11 | LDLLL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 9 | LLDWL |
| 15 | Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12:21 | -9 | 6 | DLDLL |
| 17 | Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10:32 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Telstar | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Win | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.10 | 2.70 |
| Corners for / against | 4.5 / 5.8 | 4.1 / 5.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | #13 | 1.48 | 1.60 |
| Utrecht | #7 | 1.70 | 1.48 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting