Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Casa Pia host Sp Lisbon on Fri 30 Oct at 20:15. Casa Pia are 16th in the table and Sp Lisbon are 3rd.
The model gives Casa Pia a 10% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Sp Lisbon 76%. It expects 0.8 goals from Casa Pia and 2.5 from Sp Lisbon, with a 64% chance of three or more goals and 48% that both teams score.
Casa Pia won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Sp Lisbon won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Casa Pia's last 10 matches and 8 of Sp Lisbon's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Casa Pia have 0 wins from 4, scoring 0.3 a game; away from home Sp Lisbon have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Casa Pia won 0, Sp Lisbon won 4 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.8 goals. The most recent, on Fri 16 Jan, finished Sp Lisbon 3-0 Casa Pia.
Notable run: Sp Lisbon, over 1.5 goals in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 83%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Casa Pia win | 10% | 10.53 | |
| Draw | 14% | 6.93 | |
| Sp Lisbon win | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home or draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| No draw | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Away or draw | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 11% | 9.01 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 6.04 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Not both teams score | 52% | 1.94 |
| Casa Pia to score | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 18% | 5.69 | |
| Sp Lisbon to score | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 8% | 12.41 | |
| Sp Lisbon clean sheet | 47% | 2.13 |
| Home leads at half-time | 11% | 9.02 | |
| Level at half-time | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.14 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.90 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 58% | 1.73 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| 1 | 3% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 5% | |
| 2 | 3% | |||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Casa Pia | Sp Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 60%6/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| Corners for / against | 4.6 / 5.7 | 5.3 / 2.4 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | #16 | 0.95 | 1.44 |
| Sp Lisbon | #1 | 2.33 | 0.92 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.8 goals per meeting